Inside The Wire

Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria: Hopes Meet Reality

In geopolitics, we are frequently confronted with what appears to be a great deal of movement. Sometimes it is the current geopolitical reality breaking apart and a new one emerging. Sometimes it is simply meaningless motion in a fixed geopolitical reality — nothing more than the illusion of movement generated for political reasons as players maneuver within a fixed framework for minor advantage or internal political reasons. In other words, we need to distinguish between geopolitics and politics.

Nowhere is that more important than in the Middle East, which increasingly has come to be defined in terms of the Arab-Israeli equation for reasons we don’t fully understand. Leaving that aside, in recent months we have been chronicling endless happenings and rumors of happenings, trying to figure out whether the region’s geopolitics were redefining themselves or whether we were simply seeing movement within the old paradigm.

GHOST: Confessions of a Counterterrorism Agent

On my morning run through February's chilly darkness, my chocolate Lab, Tyler Beauregard, sets the pace. This is our routine together, though we always vary our route now. At agent training, which I just completed, they drilled into us the notion that in our new lives, routines will get us killed. When you join the Dark World, you must become unpredictable. Erratic. We must strip away all the conventions of our old lives and fade into the background. We've been trained. We've practiced. Today, I begin my life as a ghost.

These morning runs will be my one tip to the old life I’m leaving behind. Still, today I take new precautions, such as the snubby Smith & Wesson Model 60 .38-caliber revolver tucked away under my belt.

I love these morning runs with Tyler. She is a remarkable animal, my familiar, a canine that intuits more about loyalty and honor than most of the people I encountered as a police officer in Montgomery County, Maryland. She pads along, tongue lolling, breathing steady. She's a pro. She could run marathons of her own.

Geopolitics of $130 Oil

Oil prices have risen dramatically over the past year. When they passed $100 a barrel, they hit new heights, expressed in dollars adjusted for inflation. As they passed $120 a barrel, they clearly began to have global impact. Recently, we have seen startling rises in the price of food, particularly grains. Apart from higher prices, there have been disruptions in the availability of food as governments limit food exports and as hoarding increases in anticipation of even higher prices.

Oil and food differ from other commodities in that they are indispensable for the functioning of society. Food obviously is the more immediately essential. Food shortages can trigger social and political instability with startling swiftness. It does not take long to starve to death. Oil has a less-immediate — but perhaps broader — impact. Everything, including growing and marketing food, depends on energy; and oil is the world’s primary source of energy, particularly in transportation. Oil and grains — where the shortages hit hardest — are not merely strategic commodities. They are geopolitical commodities. All nations require them, and a shift in the price or availability of either triggers shifts in relationships within and among nations.

Mexico: Examining Cartel War Violence through a Protective Intelligence Lens

Mexico's long and violent drug cartel war has recently intensified. The past week witnessed the killings of no fewer than six senior police officials. One of those killed was Edgar Millan Gomez, acting head of the Mexican federal police and the highest-ranking federal cop in Mexico. Millan Gomez was shot to death May 8 just after entering his home in Mexico City.

Within the past few days, six suspects have been arrested in connection with his murder. One of the ringleaders is said to be a former federal highway police officer. The suspects appear to have ties to the Sinaloa cartel. In fact, Millan Gomez was responsible for a police operation in January that led to the arrest of Alfredo Beltran Leyva, the cartel's second-in-command. Mexican police believe Beltran Leyva's brother Arturo (who is also a significant player in the Sinaloa cartel structure) commissioned the hit.

Shanghai Bus Fire Highlights Chinese Transportation Vulnerability

A fire aboard the number 842 bus in Shanghai's Yangpu district during morning rush hour May 5 killed three people and injured a dozen more. The bus, operated by the Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co., caught fire around 9:15 a.m. local time near Huangxing Road and Guoshun Road. Publicly, security officials say the fire was an accident caused by a mechanical problem. However, security officials have privately said that an individual came on board the bus carrying flammable materials. There is strong suspicion that the fire was the result of an intentional act, perhaps related to someone frustrated with losses on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

For several months, China has been stepping up security for transportation infrastructure in anticipation of the Beijing Olympics in August. But several recent incidents have reiterated the vulnerability of China’s transportation infrastructure, not only to potential terrorist or criminal attacks, but also to accidents stemming from negligence and corruption. While regulations and security procedures are being tightened, the potential for attacks on trains, buses and aircraft remains a risk for both business travelers and tourists.

Stratfor's War: Five Years Later

Five years have now passed since the US invasion of Iraq. Vice President Dick Cheney, in Iraq with Sen. John McCain — the presumptive Republican nominee for president — summarized the five years by saying, "If you reflect back on those five years, it's been a difficult, challenging, but nonetheless successful endeavor. We've come a long way in five years, and it's been well worth the effort." Democratic presidential aspirant Sen. Hillary Clinton called the war a failure.

It is the role of political leaders to make such declarations, not ours. Nevertheless, after five years, it is a moment to reflect less on where we are and more on where we are going. As we have argued in the past, the actual distinctions between McCain's position at one end (reduce forces in Iraq only as conditions permit) and Barack Obama's position (reduce them over 16 months unless al Qaeda is shown to be in Iraq) are in practice much less distinct than either believes. Rhetoric aside — and this is a political season — there is in fact a general, but hardly universal, belief that goes as follows: The invasion of Iraq probably was a mistake, and certainly its execution was disastrous. But a unilateral and precipitous withdrawal by the United States at this point would not be in anyone's interest. The debate is over whether the invasion was a mistake in the first place, while the divisions over ongoing policy are much less real than apparent. More

Hezbollah: Signs of a Sophisticated Intelligence Apparatus

Ricin: An Unlikely Weapon of Mass Destruction

A 57-year-old graphic designer and pizza deliveryman, Roger Von Bergendorff, remained in a coma in a Las Vegas-area hospital March 5, nearly two weeks after he apparently inhaled ricin powder, a biological toxin that later was found among his belongings. The FBI is investigating the case to determine how the potentially deadly substance came into Von Bergendorff's possession – and, more important, what he planned to do with it. More

Al Qaeda, Afghanistan and the Good War

There has been tremendous controversy over the US invasion of Iraq, which consistently has been contrasted with Afghanistan. Many of those who opposed the Iraq war have supported the war in Afghanistan; indeed, they have argued that among the problems with Iraq is that it diverts resources from Afghanistan. Afghanistan has been seen as an obvious haven for terrorism. This has meant the war in Afghanistan often has been perceived as having a direct effect on al Qaeda and on the ability of radical Islamists to threaten the United States, while Iraq has been seen as unrelated to the main war. Supporters of the war in Iraq support the war in Afghanistan. Opponents of the war in Iraq also support Afghanistan. If there is a good war in our time, Afghanistan is it. More

Tablighi Jamaat: An Indirect Line to Terrorism

Spanish police conducted a series of raids on apartment buildings, a mosque and a prayer hall in Barcelona on Jan. 19, seizing bombmaking materials and arresting 14 men who allegedly were planning to attack targets in the city. Spanish Interior Minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba said the detainees were Islamists belonging  to a “well-organized group that had gone a step beyond  radicalization.” A Muslim leader in Barcelona was quoted in some media reports as  saying the 14 suspects — 12 Pakistanis, an Indian and a Bangladeshi  — were members of a “Pakistani-based group called Tablighi Jamaat.” The Tablighi  Jamaat (TJ) name has come up before in connection with terrorism  plots, including the October 2002 Portland Seven and the September  2002 Lackawanna Six cases in the United States, as well as the  August 2006 plot  to bomb airliners  en route from London to the United States, the  July 7, 2005, London Underground bombings and the July 2007 attempted  bombings in London and Glasgow, Scotland. Over the past several years we also have received several queries about TJ from U.S. law  enforcement officials who are concerned about the group’s presence  and activities in the United States. This, then, is a good time to correct some of the erroneous  information regarding TJ — and attempt to paint a realistic portrait  of the very real threat posed by some of the people affiliated with  TJ.  More

Bioterrorism: Sudden Death Overtime?

Early in December, Interpol hosted a bioterrorism tabletop exercise at its headquarters in Lyon, France, that was code-named "Black Death." The scenario for the exercise involved militants unleashing a biological agent at a large sporting event, using air horns to disperse the agent into the unwitting crowd. According to the opening statement given by Interpol Secretary-General Ronald Noble, "Using disease, terrorists can substantially multiply the devastation and societal disruption that they cause, and they can do it without sophisticated infrastructure or state support. For this very reason, we would be mistaken to treat a worst-case scenario as a remote possibility. Instead, we must deal with this as an eventuality for which we need to be prepared." More

Al Qaeda in 2008: The Struggle for Relevance

On Dec 16, al Qaeda's As-Sahab media branch released a 97-minute video message from al Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri. In the message, titled "A Review of Events," al-Zawahiri readdressed a number of his favorite topics at length. 
 
This video appeared just two days after As-Sahab released a 20-minute al-Zawahiri message entitled "Annapolis – The Treason." In that message, al-Zawahiri speaks on audio tape while a still photograph of him is displayed over a montage of photos taken during the peace conference in Annapolis, Md. As the title implies, al-Zawahiri criticizes the conference. More

US: The Role and Limitations of the 'Dark Web' In Jihadist Training

Security experts have warned in recent weeks that Western governments have yielded control of the Internet to jihadists by failing to understand the efficacy of pro-al Qaeda Web sites to recruit and train new operatives. Although the Internet has been a great enabler for grassroots cells to spread their ideology and recruit new acolytes, some things are incredibly difficult to accomplish online – namely, absorbing the technical information and tradecraft of terrorism and applying it to a real-world situation, particularly in a hostile environment.

Iraq: Integrating Sunni Patrols into the Security Apparatus

Chief Iraqi military spokesman Brig Gen Qassim Moussawi said Dec 5 that most of Iraq's Sunni neighborhood security patrols will be formally integrated into the Shiite-dominated government by the middle of 2008. This move could make or break US strategy in Iraq.

The majority of Iraq's Sunni neighborhood security patrols will be formally integrated into the Shiite-dominated government by mid-2008, chief Iraqi military spokesman Brig Gen Qassim Moussawi said on Dec 5. Moussawi said the Iraqi government will pay and give uniforms to around 45,000 patrol members. Earlier in the week, the Iraqi government said it would begin paying some 12,000 "concerned local citizen" (CLC) patrol members currently on the US payroll (in all, approximately 77,000 volunteers have signed up as CLC members). More

Expanding BMD Capabilities?

Most US ballistic missile defense (BMD) development has thus far been most successful in hitting incoming missiles no earlier than the ascent phase – well after they've been launched. Attacking a missile in the early boost-phase – as soon as they're launched – requires being close to the point of launch. The United States' Cold War experience of facing down the geographically huge Soviet Union also made boost-phase systems impractical. There was simply no way that any US asset could possibly intercept a missile launched from the heart of the USSR in the boost phase. More

The NIE Report: Solving a Geopolitical Problem with Iran

The United States released a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Dec 3. It said, "We judge with high confidence that in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." It went on to say, "Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005." It further said, "Our assessment that Iran halted the program in 2003 primarily in response to international pressure indicates Tehran's decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs." More

Iran's Nuclear Gambit: A Timeline of Events

The release of a new US National Intelligence Estimate that says Iran quit work on its nuclear weapons program four years ago marks a momentous shift in the dynamics of the Middle East, as well as in the relationships among the United States, Iran and Iraq. This timeline shows how events have played out in recent years. More

Iraq: Positive Signs

The latest reports concerning the war in Iraq suggest the situation is looking up for the United States. First, US military and Iraqi civilian casualties continue to fall. Second, there are confirmed reports that Sunni insurgents controlled by local leaders have turned on al Qaeda militants, particularly those from outside the country. Third, the head of US Central Command, in an interview with the Financial Times, implied that an attack against Iran is a distant possibility. More

Iraq: The Mehdi Army's Transformation

The Mehdi Army, a Shiite Iraqi militia led by Muqtada al-Sadr, reportedly is undergoing changes to become a legitimate political group. This move is an expected outcome of progress in US-Iranian talks on Iraq. Bringing militiamen affiliated with the radical al-Sadrite movement into the mainstream, however, could increase intra-Shiite tensions. More

A Glimmer of Hope at Annapolis

US President George W. Bush will host a meeting Nov. 27 between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Annapolis, Md. This is fairly banal news, as the gathering seems intended to give the impression that the United States cares what happens between the Israelis and the Palestinians. The last such meeting, the Camp David summit between Yasser Arafat and Ehud Barak, sponsored by then-President Bill Clinton, was followed by massive violence. Therefore, the most we have learned to hope for from such meetings is nothing. This one will either be meaningless or catastrophic. More

Reading Annapolis

The US-sponsored Israeli-Palestinian peace conference in Annapolis, Md., will take place November 27. Given the list of participants, the summit – which has been shortened to a single day – will leave just enough time for opening statements and photos. But while expectations for this particular meeting are low, we ought to be cautious about dismissing it. More

The JFK Airport Plot and the Caribbean Connection

US and Guyanese authorities were still searching June 4 for a fourth suspect wanted in connection with an alleged plot to blow up jet fuel pipelines and storage tanks at New York's John F. Kennedy (JFK) International Airport. Although a serious flaw in the plot made the threat far smaller than the suspects apparently planned, the case does highlight the link between jihadism and the Caribbean islands – and the effectiveness of jihadist propaganda.

Surveillance: For Good and for Evil

Whether terrorists are attempting to assassinate a high-ranking government official, bring down a building or explode a bomb in a subway, their first order of business is to determine how best to set up the attack. To make such a determination, pre-operational surveillance of the target is vital.

Geopolitical Diary: The Reality of Al Qaeda's Resurgence

A leak from the US defense community revealed a document titled "Al Qaeda Better Positioned to Strike the West" on Thursday, touching off a firestorm of debate within the United States over the status of the War on Terror. According to the leak, al Qaeda is "…considerably operationally stronger than a year ago," has "…regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001" and is "…showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

Al Qaeda and the Strategic Threat to the US Homeland

The July 17 release of portions of a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) titled "The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland" has generated a great deal of comment from Stratfor readers, many of whom contend it is at odds with our assessment, published shortly before the contents of the NIE were leaked. In that report, we attempted to clarify what we mean when we refer to "al Qaeda" and we differentiate between the small al Qaeda core organization (what we call "al Qaeda prime"), the somewhat wider array of al Qaeda franchise organizations (such as al Qaeda in Iraq) and the broad assortment of grassroots jihadists who have no actual connection to the core organization. Our assessment also echoed an assertion we have been making for quite some time now – that al Qaeda lacks the ability to pose a strategic threat to the United States.

China: The Deceptive Logic for a Carrier Fleet

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy continues to push for aircraft carrier capability, despite ongoing internal debate and dissent. While a carrier is a valuable naval asset, China's pursuit must be understood as an expensive choice that entails considerable opportunity costs.

China appears committed to deploying the Soviet-built Varyag aircraft carrier in at least a training role around or after 2010, with the potential for further pursuits, despite contradictory claims in recent weeks. The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will have to sacrifice much to continue this costly endeavor.

A carrier fleet substantially expands a country's naval capability, so it is easy to understand China's ambition. The British, for example, would never have been able to take back the Falkland Islands in 1982 without the HMS Invincible and the HMS Hermes.

US: The Cycle of "Dirty Bomb" Threats

Closing arguments in the Jose Padilla trial are set to begin August 13 in Miami. Padilla is on trial for allegedly supporting plots to carry out jihadist attacks in the United States. He is also associated with an alleged plot to detonate a "dirty bomb," or radiological dispersal device (RDD), inside the United States as part of a jihadist attack.

The Obstacles to the Capture of Osama bin Laden

Al Qaeda's As-Sahab media arm released a video Sept. 11 to commemorate the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Although the 47-minute video features a voice-over introduction by Osama bin Laden, the bulk of it is of Abu Musab Waleed al-Shehri, one of the suicide bombers who crashed American Airlines Flight 11 into the World Trade Center's north tower. That recording was made prior to al-Shehri's travel to the United States in the spring of 2001.
 
There is nothing in bin Laden's audio segment to indicate it was recorded recently. The production does include a still photograph of him – one taken from what appears to be a real bin Laden video released Sept 7 (in which he sports a dyed beard), but bin Laden's comments about the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest they were recorded during al Qaeda's 2006 media blitz.

Russia: A New Development in Naval Propulsion

An "accidental" news story on a local Russian municipality's Web site that has now been removed offers some intriguing possibilities for the future of Russian submarines.

Details of a potential new "top-secret" Russian submarine were "accidentally" released by the municipal government of Sarov on Sept 6. The story, published on the municipality's Web site, was removed Sept 11, the day before Russian daily Kommersant (a paper friendly to the Kremlin) published the story. The Russian navy has denied any knowledge of the Project 20120 submarine. Politics and media faux pas aside, if true, the details of this new submarine could indicate an advance in Russian air-independent propulsion (AIP).

War, Psychology and Time

There are moments in history when everything comes together. Today is the sixth anniversary of the al Qaeda attack against the United States. This is the week Gen David Petraeus reports to Congress on the status of the war in Iraq. It also is the week Osama bin Laden made one of his rare video appearances. The world will not change this week, but the convergence of these strands makes it necessary to pause and take stock.
 
To do this, we must begin at the beginning. We do not mean Sept 11, 2001, but the moment when bin Laden decided to stage the attack – and the reasoning behind it. By understanding his motives, we can begin to measure his success. His motive was not, we believe, simply to kill Americans. That was a means to an end. Rather, as we and others have said before, it was to seize what he saw as a rare opportunity to begin the process of recreating a vast Islamic empire.